So, How ‘Bout Them New Guys: Illinois Fighting Illini, 1987

Author's Note:

Apologies for the amount of time this took, since I got back to school I have been working on pure busywork, but I intend to get a couple of classes out a week at the very least... I do have internet in my apartment now, which is a definite plus.

There are some kinks in the math that I am trying to work out. It has to deal with freshmen and how much they count for playing - right now, I have the freshman year counting as a playable year for everyone after 1972, with 22 possible starting spots for every game, but this may cause skew once I start doing older classes. I may divide the board at 1972, therefore.

Set the Stage:

Head Coach: Mike White (1987), John Mackovic (1988-1991)

1986 Performance: 4-7, Big Ten 6th
New Blood: 27

Recruiting Map:

Mini Recruiting Board Lives Here:

Position	Count
QB	0
RB/FB	1
WR	4
TE	3
OL	2
DT	4
DE	0
LB	8
DB	1
K/P	4

1987 was an important year for Mike White. He was coming off of a poor season, and had to prove himself. The majority of this class was recruited as defensive depth, especially at LB.

How They Did:

Overall Record: 33-24-2
Varsity Letters: 42
Graduated on Team: 17
Started a Game: 16
Full Eligibility: 11
5th Year Seniors: 10

Notable Honors:

• Brownlow, Darrick, LB, All-Conference 1989 1990
• Poloskey, Mike, LB, All-Conference 1991
• Simpson, Tom, OG, All-Conference 1991

Draftees:

• Brownlow, Darrick, 1991, 5th Round, 132 Overall
• Griffith, Howard, 1991, 9th Round, 236 Overall
• Turner, Elbert, 1992, 7th Round, 189 Overall
• Simpson, Tom, 1992, 12th Round, 329 Overall

Recruiting Score:

Category	Points
Man-Game Ratio	0.2920
Record	0.0576
Letters	0.0420
Heisman	0.0000
All-Americans	0.0000
All-Big Ten	0.0400
Full Eligibility	0.0110
Drafted	0.0400
Total	0.4826

1987 proved to be Mike White's final season coaching, and he was succeeded by the very capable John Mackovic, who led Illinois to four bowls in a row (though he won only one). He finished in the AP Top 25 twice, and won the Big Ten in 1990 (with an 8-4 record, though).

This class proved to be an important cornerstone for Mackovic, especially in his defenses, where the LBs counted for 35 of the 36 possible LB starts on his 1990 Big Ten Championship team. Tim Simpson started 48 games in a row for Illinois, spanning his four years of eligibility, and the class overall made a large number of starts. In 1991, 6 of the [11+ game] starters on the defense were from this class, and the class overall accumulated 220 defensive starts, 217 of which came after 1987. There is a significant drop to the number of offensive starts (148), which is still large considering that only 7 offensive players played through to their senior season, and only 5 got starting time.

Schedule of Events: August Update

Michigan	1981	Complete
Penn State	1993
Indiana	2004	Complete
Michigan	2002	Complete
Michigan	1989	Complete
Michigan State	1938
Illinois	1987	Analyzed
Penn State	1937
Michigan	1970	Analyzed
Wisconsin	1971
Illinois	1956
Michigan	1946
Ohio State	1991
Iowa	1956
Purdue	1950
Michigan State	1988
Michigan State	1976
Purdue	1964	Analyzed
Purdue	1959
Illinois	2000

Busy

Bad week, but I have done the analysis for a few classes, just have to write the posts. Expect news on Monday.

So How 'Bout Them New Guys: Michigan Wolverines 1989

Author's Note:

Home Blog contains my scoring system and the schedule of events, as well as the top classes I have done so far.

Purdue's rosters got here Monday. Good thing. Means that I can start working on them and actually get some information. I have back to WWII, minus a few years, so that's good.

I'm going to stop summarizing with my first paragraph at the bottom. You can all figure out what the numbers mean.

This is my second of two Michigan classes in a row, and then I'm going to try to find enough information to do the next one down on my list... we will see how that goes, really. Playing it by ear on schools not named Michigan (or Purdue now).

Set the Stage:

Head Coach: Bo Schembechler (1989), Gary Moeller (1990-1993)

1988 Performance: 9-2-1, AP 4th, Big Ten 1st
New Blood: 19

Recruiting Map:

Mini Recruiting Board Lives Here:

Position	Count
QB	1
RB/FB	2
WR	2
TE	2
OL	3
DT	4
DE	0
LB	3
DB	1
K	1

The 1989 was recruited off of what had been a standard 9-win Big Ten Title season. The class was strongly balanced, with a good mix of every position. I do not know if Bo thought this was his last season by the time this season started, but it is clear that he was intending on leaving a strong foundation for his successor.

How They Did:

Overall Record: 46-11-3
Varsity Letters: 46
Graduated on Team: 16
Started a Game: 10
Full Eligibility: 12
5th Year Seniors: 10

Notable Honors:

• Derrick Alexander, WR, All-American 1992, All-Conference 1992 1993
• Tony McGee, TE, All-Conference 1992
• Buster Stanley, DT, All-Conference 1993

Draftees:

• Derrick Alexander, 1994, 1st Round, 29 Overall
• Tony McGee, 1993, 2nd Round, 37 Overall

Recruiting Score:

Category	Points
Man-Game Ratio	0.1589
Record	0.0792
Letters	0.0460
Heisman	0.0000
All-Americans	0.0250
All-Big Ten	0.0400
Full Eligibility	0.0120
Drafted	0.0300
Total	0.3911

So, besides being the year I was born, 1989 is famously known as the year after Desmond Howard was recruited, or Bo's last year coaching. That's about it. The class produced two draftees, but they went in rounds 1 and 2, so that is redeeming. One All-American honor was awarded, to Derrick Alexander, who also was All-Big Ten twice and a first-round draft pick. Alexander was solely responsible for .0700 points of this class, giving the class a strong boost. This class only started 15.9% of possible starts, implying that the surrounding classes will be much stronger.

This class also had a weak Senior season (9-0-3), as well as a weak 5th Year (8-4-0). When I get more data points, I'm going to try to link 4th year record to recruiting score.

So How 'Bout Them New Guys: Michigan Wolverines 2002

Author's Note:

So at this point I am having many issues with finding enough information for schools not named Michigan before 2004. I've had to skip one Penn State class and am sure I'll have to do it with other schools. Fortunately, Purdue and Minnesota are mailing me their information. I've got requests out at many schools trying to get information. So at this point, I've got two Michigan classes in a row, and then back to the grind of finding information. Enjoy.

Set the Stage:

Head Coach: Lloyd Carr
2001 Performance: 8-4-0, 2nd Big Ten, 20th Overall
New Blood: 23

Recruiting Map:

Mini Recruiting Board Lives Here:

Position	Count
QB	1
RB/FB	2
WR	3
TE	2
OL	3
DT	2
DE	1
LB	5
DB	4
K

The 2002 class was recruited off of a mediocre 8-4 campaign in 2001, which succumbed to Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl. Lloyd aimed for a very balanced class here, though a light on the line on both sides of the ball. The emphasis on skill positions was expected to pay off in spades. This class contained 13 in-state players, showing Lloyd's preference for Michigan Men to come from Michigan.

How They Did:

Overall Record: 47-16
Varsity Letters: 61
Graduated on Team: 18
Started a Game: 17
Full Eligibility: 15
5th Year Seniors: 12

Notable Honors:

• Jason Avant, WR, All-Conference 2005
• Dave Harris, ILB, All-Conference 2006
• Gabriel Watson, DT, All-Conference 2005 2006

Draftees:

• Jason Avant, 2006, 4th Round, 109 Overall
• Steve Breaston, 2007, 5th Round, 142 Overall
• Dave Harris, 2007, 2nd Round, 47 Overall
• Gabriel Watson, 2006, 4th Round, 107 Overall

Recruiting Score:

Category	Points
Man-Game Ratio	0.1566
Record	0.0746
Letters	0.0610
Heisman	0.0000
All-Americans	0.0000
All-Big Ten	0.0400
Full Eligibility	0.0150
Drafted	0.0400
Total	0.3872

Of the 23 students drafted, 18 graduated, 17 started a game, 15 used their full eligibility, and 12 played as redshirt seniors.

I think this class justifies the use of the man-game starting ratio. This team had an extremely weak starting percentage, barely over 15%, but a high winning percentage, ~75%. The senior season, at 7-6, reflects the starting percentage well. All other classes for Michigan within this time period should have a higher starting percentage, and better senior seasons. This was nowhere near Carr's best performing class.

The lean of this class was towards its skill players in recruiting, and a couple of strong players came from it. Steve Breaston and Jason Avant were both strong receivers and anchors for their senior campaigns. However, the linemen, even though they had less presence, had 43% of the starts for the class. Gabe Watson, DT, won two All-Conference First Team honors, and was drafted just before Jason Avant in the '06 draft. Of the skill players, only two wide receivers an an inside linebacker (Dave Harris) stood out, while Gabe Watson, Reuben Riley, Mark Bihl, and Rondell Biggs all became strong presences on the line during their respective senior campaigns.

So How 'Bout Them New Guys: Indiana Hoosiers 2004

Author's Note:

Hi to all of the (one or two) followers I have so far. Wow, I didn't realize just how difficult it would be to dig up starting lineups for teams... I was forced to skip Penn State 1993, I will go back to them when I get the chance.

A new conundrum came up in my calculations in the sense that I am counting more man-games than a class can possibly play in some cases (too few players). I am going to stick with how I'm doing it - assuming the first 4 seasons are full at 22 players per game and then taking double the number of players that are redshirt seniors. This is just for the sake of continuity.

Anyway, on with the show.

Set the Stage:

Head Coach: Gerry DiNardo (2004), Terry Hoeppner (2005-2006), Bill Lynch (2007-2008)
2003 Performance: 2-10-0, 9th Big Ten
New Blood: 20 (Possibly off count, could not find a 2004 roster that differentiated FR from RS FR anywhere)

Recruiting Map:

Mini Recruiting Board Lives Here:

Position	Count
QB	1
RB/FB
WR	4
TE
OL	4
DT	2
DE
LB	4
DB	4
K	1

The 1984 class was the last of 3 classes recruited by Gerry DiNardo, who was fired after 3 seasons in a row of at best 3 wins. The class came out to be 9 offensive, 10 defensive, and one special teams player, with a strong balance of positions accounted for. The lack of running backs is questionable, however.

How They Did:

Overall Record: 22-38
Varsity Letters: 45
Graduated on Team: 16
Started a Game: 10
Full Eligibility: 11
5th Year Seniors: 9

Notable Honors:

• James Hardy, WR, All-Conference 2007
• Tracy Porter, CB, All-Conference 2007
• Austin Starr, K, All-Conference 2007

Draftees:

• James Hardy, 2008, 2nd Round, 41st Overall
• Tracy Porter, 2008, 2nd Round, 40th Overall

Recruiting Score:

Category	Points
Man-Game Ratio	0.1792
Record	0.0373
Letters	0.0450
Heisman	0.0000
All-Americans	0.0000
All-Big Ten	0.0300
Full Eligibility	0.0100
Drafted	0.0200
Total	0.3215

Of the 20 students brought in, 16 graduated, 9 as redshirt seniors. 10 made starts, and 11 played out their eligibility.

141 defensive and 83 offensive starts were made, for a total of 224. This shows a strong defensive bias in this class.

Indiana has never really been the strongest team in the Big Ten. This class showed some signs of life, though, having a fairly strong senior campaign at 7-6 with a bowl appearance. Of everyone on the team, the best players were the three awarded All-Conference honors in their senior season - Hardy (the only consensus 1st team), Porter, and Starr (both Media 1st team). Though some talent poked through, it appears that DiNardo was a terrible recruiter, and the late Hoeppner was the reason that these players were showing any of their potential. It appears that he was on the way to bringing Indiana out of the basement of the Big Ten in the future, and it is deeply unfortunate that he had to pass so early in his tenure there.

So, How ‘Bout Them New Guys: Michigan Wolverines, 1981

Set the Stage:

Coach: Bo Schembechler
1980 Performance: 10-2, Rose Bowl Victory, Final Ranking: 4th National, 1st Big Ten
1981 New Blood Count: 24

Recruiting Map:

Mini Recruiting Board Lives Here:

Position	Count
QB
RB/FB	2
WR	1
TE	2
OL	7
DT	3
DE
LB	7
DB	2
K

The 1981 class was recruited coming off of the wings of a great 1980 season, which culminated in a Rose Bowl win. The class included 12 offensive and 12 defensive players, a very balanced 24-man class. The lack of a quarterback is explained by the presence of Steve Smith, who was the starting QB for most of the games for the first 3 seasons of this class. There was obvious weakness in both the linebacker and offensive line cores, which Bo hoped to fill with this class.

How They Did:

Overall Record: 42-17-1
Varsity Letters: 56
Graduated on Team: 18
Started a Game: 15
Full Eligibility: 11
5th Year Seniors: 8

Notable Honors:

• Kevin Brooks, All Conference 1983 1984
• Brad Cochran, All-American 1985, All-Conference 1985
• Mike Hammerstein, All-American 1985, All-Conference 1985
• Eric Kattus, All-Conference 1985
• Mike Mallory, All-Conference 1984 1985
• Clay Miller, All-Conference 1985
• Alan Sincich, All-Conference 1983

Draftees:

• Kevin Brooks, 1985, 1st Round, 17th Overall
• Brad Cochran, 1986, 3rd Round, 80th Overall
• Mike Hammerstein, 1986, 3rd Round, 65th Overall
• Eric Kattus, 1986, 4th Round, 91st Overall
• Clay Miller, 1986, 12th Round, 306th Overall

Recruiting Score:

Category	Points
Man-Game Ratio	0.2580
Record	0.0708
Letters	0.0560
Heisman	0.0000
All-Americans	0.0500
All-Big Ten	0.0900
Full Eligibility	0.0110
Drafted	0.0600
Total	0.5958

Of the 24 players recruited, 18 made it to graduation as members of the team. 15 made starts, and 11 played for their full four years.

The worst year for this class was in its senior year, 1984, when 12 players from the class made 114 starts and the team went 6-6. 1985 was an excellent year, in which 5 of the 8 remaining redshirt senior players made All-Conference and two made All-American honors (both of whom could have gone on to be cops). The 1985 team made it to the Fiesta Bowl, which they won, bringing their final record to 10-1-1. The caliber of the players in this class was sub-par compared to years surrounding it, shown by the general mediocrity of the team’s record.

Unfortunately for Bo, only 3 of the 7 OL recruits made any starts, one of which made one, one of which was a starting senior, and one of which converted to a DT and became an All-American. 5 of the 7 LB recruits made impacts on the team.

The shining point of this class was the defense. Of the 322 starts the class made, 201 were on defense. The two All-Americans were Brad Cochran, DB, who made 36 straight starts in his last 3 years, and Mike Hammerstein, DT, who was MVP of the 1985 defense, which allowed a whopping 8.1 ppg. The three defensive players who were drafted went in the 1st, 3rd, and 3rd rounds.

Overall, the 1981 class built a strong defensive core, which allowed Bo to focus on the offense in the next year's class.